RKLBRocket Lab USA

Satellite components - launch - ISR

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HOLD

Conviction●●●●○4 of 5

Research target180Snapshot target

Thesis statusWEAKENEDLast reviewed 7/1/26

Market cap63.25BSnapshot value

The thesis

Only commercial launch+satellite-manufacturing bottleneck supplier; 17% below entry on macro fear, not thesis change; SDA Tranche 2 and Neutron catalysts remain H2-2026

Catalysts

Neutron medium-lift vehicle H2-2026 milestone; SDA Tranche 2 award; NSSL candidacy

What breaks it

Neutron program delayed >12 months; SDA budget cut materially; launch failure damaging manifest; cash burn accelerates past $400M/yr without revenue offset

Social sentiment

X: bullish — Nasdaq-100 addition confirmed, Jensen Huang/NVDA ecosystem adjacency, defense space tailwind; backlog growth cited by credible analysts

Snapshot · 7/1/26

Smart money

🟢 Lean-Bull · 13F 20+/5- · short↑0.28

Snapshot · 7/1/26